Scott Tyler's Blog

I've heard a lot of  talking heads worrying about a future war over natural resources, either oil or water.  While it's an interesting idea, I don't believe it's likely, for one simple reason: it's never happened before.   There have been shortages of strategic materials before, and past oil, water and even food crises.  But there has never been a full-blown war between two countries  over natural resources, fought out of dire necessity.  Well, not in 4,500 years.  The last (and only recorded) formal war fought over water was in 2500 B.C.

One could argue that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait for its oil.  But Iraq didn't need Kuwait's oil: they were, and are, an oil exporting country.  Similarly, some have argued that the United States and her allies fought the two Gulf Wars over oil, but even if that is true, Iraq and Kuwait represent a small portion of the U.S.'s oil imports (less than 10% combined), so I don't see how that implies a dire necessity.

Iraq and Syria have had serious water disputes with Turkey, which has dammed several rivers that flow through the three countries (including the Euphrates).  But they have not gone to war over the issue.  Similarly, Israel's neighbours claim that it is taking more than its share of the water resources of the region.  But Jordan and Syria have not attacked Israel because of it.

Resource shortages- especially of food- have provoked riots, rebellions and revolutions.  But they have never provoked international wars.  Why?  Because poor countries do not attack rich ones.  The weak do not attack the strong.  If one country has a resource which another country wants, the latter country can simply purchase the resource (sometimes at an inflated price).  Rarely will a supplier country refuse to sell a resource at any price, unless they don't have enough for themselves.  In which case, attacking that country will do little good, as the defenders will fight desperately to keep what they have, and spoil it rather than surrender it to their enemy.

Wars are not fought because of necessity.  They are fought because of greed.   They are fought by the strong against the weak, and by the weak in defense against the strong.   Sometimes they are fought for ideological reasons, but usually ideology is an excuse for ambition.  The Arab conquests of the 6th and 7th Centuries were not really about spreading Islam, they were about plundering their neighbours.   Likewise the Spanish conquests in Latin America were supposedly for 'God, gold and glory', but God and glory had nothing to do with it.  It was gold, and gold alone, which fired the conquistador's hearts.

There is no question that there will be oil shortages in this century.  That resource is dying out.  Fresh water, likewise, is becoming scarce in some countries.  But will there be wars as a result?  History says that it is unlikely.

...is laissez faire.  I believe in freedom of speech.  Complete freedom.  So say whatever you want- be it racist, sexist, homophobic, sacreligious, whatever.  You're just showing what a doofus you are, when you do.  But I won't censor it.

(Unless it's spam.  I hate spam.)

Racism is a choice, folks.  If you want to be a racist, that's your choice.  But you have to live with yourself.  All that bitterness and hate is unhealthy, and it won't make you happy.  Have you ever seen a happy skinhead?  A happy Muslim extremist?  I doubt it.   Don't be a hater.   Haters, really, just hate themselves.

So why not censor it, you ask?  Why allow ignorant and hateful comments?  Because when you suppress such speech, and drive it underground, it only fuels the paranoia and self-pity of the commenters.  They say, "See?  Nobody will let me say the 'truth'!"   Also, sometimes, the people who are politically incorrect in their views have a point, and aren't just raving redneck lunatics.  Sometimes.  But not often.

That's why I have a "no-censorship" policy on this blog.  So (sigh) do your worst.

Last month, I returned two sets of keys: one for a church I helped to lead, and another for a business I part-owned.  Both failed.  The business failed financially, and had to close down.  The church, while still open, has failed spiritually, and is dying a slower death.  I feel disappointed by both failures.  I knew the business would fail, after just the first few months, as we were under-capitalized and my partners were mismanaging it.  I myself share some of the blame, as I neglected the business and left it entirely in their hands, once I saw that it was unprofitable-- basically a money pit.

But the church is a bigger disappointment.  I invested a lot of time and energy (and, yes, money) in the church.  I "delivered the message" there, about 12 times.  I lead a weekly Bible study for over a year, I attended weekly leadership meetings, helped set up charity projects, and so on.  More than that, I felt like part of a community of believers-- friends-- who were working together to build our church.

Then we decided to pay our pastor, who had been unpaid up until that point.  Somebody said, "If  we are going to pay the pastor we should do it right, and make a contract."  I said, "Fine", and wrote a business-like contract, which made the pastor responsible to the church elders.  He refused to sign it.  And that's when we began to see how our pastor truly felt about our church.  That it wasn't 'our' church at all... it was 'his'.   At every meeting, his ego grew.  Or perhaps just became more apparent.   As his pride and stubbornness grew, so did divisions within the church, and one-by-one members left.  A few of the church leaders remain, and they have decided to make one last effort to reason with the pastor.   But I'm not hopeful.

Did I invest three years in that church for nothing?  Should I have fought harder to save it?  The pastor seemed to believe that I was trying to lead a mutiny, to take over leadership of 'his' church.   That was never my intention.   In fact, I left to avoid such a power struggle.  But as I remove these keys from my key ring, I wonder: what did I do wrong?

Not that I don't want to.  Don't take it personally.  But in case you haven't heard, Facebook is BLOCKED in China.  Yes, I still get email notifications when someone wants to 'friend' me, or writes on my wall, or throws a 'grenade' at me.  But I can't do anything about it.  

Actually, since Facebook has been blocked, my productivity has increased about 50%.  So, maybe it's not such a bad thing.